Thousands more flights were cancelled on Monday as the turmoil in global air travel caused by the US-Israel war on Iran continued, with hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded.

Gulf airports and airlines have suspended normal operations until at least 10.00 GMT on Tuesday. However, a limited number of special services were due to depart from the UAE on Monday evening.

Airline and travel share prices fell sharply after days of disruption, with Donald Trump indicating that the US military action could last another four weeks.

Some carriers and travel companies are offering refunds or free changes to those due to travel in the coming weeks. Major Middle Eastern airports, including Dubai – the world’s busiest international hub – closed for a third consecutive day amid the most acute aviation shock since the Covid pandemic paralysed the industry.

Flights across the Middle East have been cancelled, disrupting thousands of services so far, as international carriers continued to suspend their services.

By 05.00 GMT, according to the analysts Cirium, almost 1,700 flights to the Middle East had been cancelled, although it warned that the figures were artificially low owing to limited data coming from Iran and the United Arab Emirates, where hundreds more flights were scheduled on Monday.

Cancellations most affected the Gulf carriers, all three of which now connect passengers worldwide via their hubs. Emirates, based in Dubai, and Etihad Airways, in Abu Dhabi, said flights to and from their hubs would not operate until late Tuesday morning, while Qatar Airways has suspended operations as long as Qatari airspace remains closed.

Emirates and Etihad were poised to resume selected flights on Monday evening, offering hope that wider passenger travel could resume. The UAE’s aviation authority said it would allow “special flights” across the country’s airports to operate to allow stranded passengers to depart.

An Emirates spokesperson said passengers who could travel would be notified and that other flights remained suspended.

Almost 2,800 flights were cancelled on Saturday, and 3,156 cancelled on Sunday, according to the tracking platform FlightAware.

Some flights to Cyprus have also been affected, with easyJet cancelling its return services between Paphos and Larnaca and the UK on Monday and Tuesday after a drone hit the RAF base in Akrotiri. British Airways said it had cancelled Monday’s Larnaca service.

Airspace over Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar was still virtually empty as of Monday, according to the flight-tracking website Flightradar24.

Virgin Atlantic said that avoiding Iraqi airspace was affecting flight times to Asia. It has cancelled Dubai flights from London until Wednesday but may resume Riyadh departures on Tuesday.

The impact has spread far beyond the Middle East, with passengers stranded from Bali to Frankfurt. Air India cancelled flights on Sunday departing from Delhi, Mumbai and Amritsar for big cities in Europe and North America.

Crew and pilots are now scattered across the world, complicating the process of resuming flights whenever airspace reopens.

As many passengers struggled to find information on the status of planned journeys, gathering at some of the world’s busiest commercial airports amid widespread delays and cancellations, the uber-wealthy found an alternative route out of the Middle East.

“Saudi Arabia is the only real option for people who want to get out of the region right now,” Ameerh Naran, the chief executive of the private jet brokerage Vimana Private, told Semafor, putting the cost of private jets from Riyadh to Europe at up to $350,000 (£260,000).

The region and its airlines have become used to travel disruption over the past few years, but such a prolonged closure of the skies – more than 24 hours – and the shutdown of all three big Gulf transit hubs was unprecedented, analysts said.

Shares in Tui, Europe’s largest travel company, dropped 9%, while the British Airways owner IAG was down 5%.

Tui said it would be contacting all customers due to travel to the Middle East in the coming week, while still making arrangements to bring people back from Dubai and Qatar. BA has told passengers due to fly out from London to the Gulf, Israel or Jordan until 15 March that they can delay travel free of charge. It has cancelled all flights to the Gulf until the end of Tuesday.

Up to 25,000 passengers could have flown on 74 UK flights to the Middle East on Monday, according to Cirium. Some flights to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have also been cancelled but Egypt flights are so far unaffected.

Shares in airlines including Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Qantas and Singapore also fell by between 5% and 9%. Hotelier Accor and the cruise company Carnival also fell sharply. US airline shares fell as Wall Street opened, with United Airlines down 3%.

Carriers around the world face higher oil prices after Brent crude jumped by as much as 13% to hit $80 a barrel, with analysts predicting they could climb as high as $100. Brent crude was later up 6% on the day, at $77 a barrel.

“For everyone the main impact will come through oil prices, which will obviously take a bump upwards,” said the aviation adviser Bertrand Grabowski.

The Gulf is a leading intersection for air cargo, putting further pressure on trade lanes on top of disruption at sea.

Credits: US Iran

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The global air travel sector is experiencing a significant rebound, with projections indicating continued growth in passenger numbers. A recent report by GlobalData highlights that the global airport projects pipeline is valued at approximately $770.1bn, with the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region accounting for about $140.8bn of this total.

According to the Airports Council International (ACI), global passenger numbers are expected to rise to 17.7 billion by 2043, driven by increasing incomes and a growing demand for air travel. The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to contribute nearly half of this growth. To meet the rising demand for air travel, an estimated $2.4tn will be required for airport infrastructure development worldwide by 2040, with the Mena region needing about $240bn for both brownfield and greenfield airport projects by 2035.

Middle Eastern airlines have been recognized as some of the fastest-growing in the world, benefiting from the region’s strategic geographic location and supportive regulatory environment.

Triple Traffic

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, these hubs facilitated substantial passenger and cargo traffic. The International Trade Association forecasts that passenger traffic in the Middle East will triple over the next 20 years, reaching 530 million by 2043. In alignment with its Vision 2030 plan, Saudi Arabia plans to modernize and expand its aviation sector, with the goal of attracting 150 million tourists by 2030. This initiative reflects the kingdom’s broader strategy to diversify its economy, emphasizing tourism, aviation, and hospitality as key sectors for development.

Significant projects include the King Salman International Airport in Riyadh, which is projected to become one of the largest airport developments globally, with an investment of $30bn.

Additionally, the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah is undergoing expansion to accommodate increasing passenger demand. There are also master plans for the development of King Fahd, Al-Ahsa, and Al-Qaisumah international airports, along with a comprehensive Dammam Airports Strategy. These projects, valued at over $426.7m, aim to enhance passenger capacity to 19.3 million annually by 2030 and expand cargo capacity to 600,000 tonnes a year.

The Mena airport construction pipeline is primarily focused on projects in advanced stages, with 78.7% of the total value in pre-execution and execution phases. Saudi Arabia holds the largest share of the pipeline value at 42.5%, followed by the UAE at 26.8% and Bahrain at 7.6%. A significant portion of these projects, approximately 73.7%, are publicly funded, indicating substantial government investment in aviation infrastructure.

As the global airline industry anticipates revenues exceeding $979bn in 2025, the Middle East is positioning itself to play a significant role in the evolving landscape of air travel. With ongoing investments in airport infrastructure and a focus on enhancing passenger experience, the region is preparing to meet the anticipated demand for air travel in the coming years.

Credits: MEED

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