The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its Long Term Demand Projections (LTDP) for air travel, which predicts a rapid rise in demand to 20250 and beyond.
Under the mid-range scenario, demand is forecast to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% (2024-2050) from the 9 trillion RPKs seen in 2024.

A higher growth scenario would see a 3.3% CAGR with passenger demand reaching 21.9 trillion RPKs in 2050. A lower growth scenario would see 2.9% CAGR with passenger demand reaching 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050.

The report said the different scenarios are driven by alternative modelling of long-term economic growth, populations, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition, and air transport supply-side capacity development.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General said: “The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel and, under all our modelled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century. That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyse opportunities, including jobs, around the world. Our Long-Term Demand report gives governments, industry, and energy suppliers a robust basis for long term planning. It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonization, and an effective clean energy transition.”

• The LTDP confirms that the COVID 19 pandemic caused a permanent structural shift in global aviation demand. Unlike previous crises, the unprecedented collapse in RPK has created a persistent gap that is not expected to converge back to the pre-pandemic GDP-aligned trend by 2050, even under the high growth scenario.
• While long term demand remains robust, the growth rate is moderating gradually. Historical analysis shows that average annual growth slowed from 6.1% CAGR between 1972 and 1998, to 4.5% CAGR between 1998 and 2024. The central scenario for 2024-2050 projects a further slowing to 3.1% CAGR. This gradual moderation reflects market maturity rather than weakening demand, as absolute passenger numbers continue to rise significantly.

The pace of growth will be uneven across regions, reflecting differences in demographics, market maturity, economic development, and connectivity potential. Under the mid-range scenario, Asia Pacific and Africa are expected to be the fastest growing regions over 2024-2050, with CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively. Europe and North America are projected to grow more slowly, at 2.5% and 2.8%.

The LTDP identifies the fastest growing markets as intra Africa (4.9%), Africa–Asia Pacific (4.5%), Asia Pacific–Middle East (3.9%), intra-Asia Pacific (3.9%), and Africa–North America (3.8%), highlighting the importance of investment in aviation infrastructure and regulatory frameworks in developing regions. By contrast, several Europe centred markets are among the slowest growing.

Credits: Global Air

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The move could open up a new front in the country’s growing aviation sector and deepen ties with China, the world’s second-largest economy.

The C919, built by state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), is China’s answer to Boeing and Airbus in the global narrow-body jet market.

Nigeria’s Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) Director General, Capt. Chris Ona Najomo told Reuters the agency is weighing the months-long process of certifying the jet, which has yet to receive approval from Western regulators.

“We’re looking at the certification of the airplane. First of all, that is where we have to start,” Najomo said on the sidelines of the UN aviation agency’s assembly in Montreal.

What they are saying 

For COMAC, certification in Nigeria would be a critical step in its bid to enter the African market.

• The Chinese planemaker has already held several talks with Nigerian officials and has offered maintenance and training support to local carriers.
• COMAC is also exploring dry lease arrangements, a financing model that allows airlines to lease planes without crew, an attractive option for Nigerian operators looking to expand capacity.

Abdullahi Ahmed, CEO of NG Eagle, a Nigerian carrier with three jets, said his airline is open to adding COMAC aircraft if they are certified and backed by adequate maintenance and training support.

• Currently, COMAC’s C919 is only flown by Chinese airlines, while its smaller ARJ21 regional jet (sometimes referenced as C909 in Southeast Asia) has gained some traction outside China.
• But the company faces hurdles as its planes are not yet validated by U.S. or European regulators.
• It is also falling behind on delivery targets, and the U.S. this year temporarily halted exports of CFM engines produced by GE and Safran that power the C919 amid trade disputes.

Why this matters 

The NCAA’s consideration of COMAC’s C919 could reshape Nigeria’s aviation sector in several ways.

• For airlines, certification could diversify aircraft supply beyond Boeing and Airbus, creating competition and potentially lowering costs.
• For China, it would mark a significant breakthrough in its quest to globalize its aviation industry, using Nigeria as a launchpad into Africa.
• If approved, Nigerian passengers could soon see Chinese-made jets on local routes, a development that would underscore the country’s rising importance as a testing ground for new entrants in global aviation.

What you should know 

With a population of 230 million, Nigeria represents one of Africa’s biggest potential aviation markets.

• The country’s 13 active airlines rely heavily on leased aircraft, and recent improvements in Nigeria’s Aviation Working Group rating.
• Meanwhile, affordability remains a challenge due to higher air travel costs for many Nigerians.

Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that average real airfare in Nigeria dropped by 43.6% between 2011 and 2023, making flying relatively more accessible.

Credits: NCAA

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