Experts say Russia could accidentally or deliberately destroy civilian jet following Poland drone incursion
Experts have issued stark warnings that Vladimir Putin could accidentally or deliberately shoot down a passenger plane flying through Europe following the incursion of Russian drones in Poland.
Airlines may review their risk assessments in Poland after the country was forced to shoot down drones in its airspace with the backing of military aircraft from NATO allies, the first time a member of the Western military alliance is known to have fired shots during Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Following the incident, airlines operating flights in Poland may consider flying further west away from the Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian borders to avoid conflict zones, said Matthew Borie, chief intelligence officer at aviation risk consultancy Osprey Flight Solutions.
They may even restrict operations to daylight hours only and carry extra fuel to cope with potential diversions, he said, similar to steps taken in the Middle East.
The worst-case scenario for airlines flying near a conflict zone is a plane being struck – either accidentally or deliberately – by weaponry.
Since 2001, six commercial planes have been unintentionally shot down, with three additional close calls, according to Osprey.
In one such incident, in December, an Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed in Kazakhstan on Christmas day, killing 38 of the 67 people on board.
The plane was accidentally shot down by Russian air defenses, according to Azerbaijan’s president and Reuters sources. The Russian president did not say that Russia had shot the plane down, but apologized that the ‘tragic incident’ occurred inside his country’s airspace.
In 2014, Russia downed Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people in board – including 196 Dutch citizens and 38 Australian citizens or residents.
It wasn’t until 11 years after the air disaster in May 2025 that the UN’s aviation council ruled that Russia was responsible – a decision Moscow called ‘scandalous’. The Kremlin has always denied any responsibility for the incident.
A Dutch court found three men – two Russians and a Ukrainian rebel – guilty of murder in absentia for their roles in shooting down the Boeing 777 in November 2022. One of the men found guilty, Igor ‘Strelkov’ Girkin, is a former security service officer who served as one of the chief architects of Putin’s annexation of Crimea, and then became a vocal proponent and military strategist amid the war in Ukraine.
In January 2024, the ultra-nationalist was sentenced to four years in jail on extremism charges prompted by his criticism of Putin and the Russian war effort.
In 2020, a Ukrainian passenger plane was mistakenly targeted and destroyed by Iranian air defense operators, killing all 176 people aboard. An investigation found that the missiles were ‘fired due to human error’, after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards mistook the jet for a cruise missile.
‘If this happens more often, you really have to understand what’s happening… What might go wrong? I’m always saying, misidentification is your biggest risk,’ said Eric Schouten, head of security consultancy Dyami.
The latest incursion of Russian drones in Poland has reignited safety concerns over the vulnerability of civil air transport in Europe, aviation and insurance.
Warsaw Chopin and Modlin airports, as well as Rzeszow and Lublin airports in the country’s east, temporarily closed before resuming operations.
Countries bordering on Ukraine have reported occasional Russian missiles or drones entering their airspace since Russia’s 2022 invasion, but not on such a large scale, and they are not known to have shot them down.
Proliferating conflict zones around the world have increased the burden on airline operations and profitability, adding to safety concerns and disrupting travel. With airspace closures around Russia and Ukraine, throughout the Middle East, between India and Pakistan, and in parts of Africa, airlines are left with fewer route options.
Detours add to airlines’ fuel costs and lengthen journey times. Eurocontrol, a 41-nation coordination agency, has said Ukraine’s closed airspace has added to congestion in the region’s skies.
Since October 2023, many international carriers have suspended flights to the region due to fears of missile and drone interference. Wednesday’s drone incident followed Israel’s attempt on Tuesday to kill the political leaders of Hamas in the Qatari capital Doha.
Worries about further disruption for the travel industry pressured airline stocks. Shares in British Airways owner IAG were down 4.1 percent, easyJet fell 2.2 percent to its weakest since April, while Lufthansa and Ryanair were both also 2.2 percent lower at the close of trade.
Flight disruptions were relatively limited because the drone incursion happened early in the morning, before many airlines had started flying.
Polish airline LOT redirected some flights to western Poland and said it expected cancellations and delays.
A spokesperson for budget airline Wizz Air, which operates in central and eastern Europe, said its security teams ‘closely monitored’ the situation and adjusted flight schedules after airports closed.
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency said no advisory was needed for the drone incursion due to its temporary nature, adding that Poland’s aviation authorities were able to sufficiently handle the incident.
Aviation analysts say airlines are increasingly wary of the risks posed by incursions into civilian flight zones.
‘This is a wake-up call, I think, for everyone in Europe that can expect this more often,’ said Schouten.
Two senior aviation insurance market sources said the market was watching events in Poland and Qatar closely.
If the market got a sense either that Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace were becoming consistent and deliberate, or that Israeli airstrikes in the Middle East were likely to continue, it would pose serious questions for insurers, one source added.
LOT, Lufthansa, Ryanair, and airBaltic did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Poland’s civil aviation authority and air navigation service did not respond to a request for comment on additional measures taken to ensure airspace safety.
Credits: DailyMail
